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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    debt there has been no deleveraging in the economy and there has been no repair made to the country s balance sheet All we have done is trade an overleveraged consumer and financial institution s balance sheet for a now vastly overleveraged public balance sheet It is most likely to be the case that all we have accomplished is to hold in abeyance the eventual pain involved with deleveraging That s because the government has the ability to leverage to a greater extent than the private sector and can maintain that leverage for a greater period of time don t forget to thank the Chinese However the government s debt is our debt and eventually must result in being reconciled through higher taxes and or inflation The only way we can save as a country is to have a current account surplus or by accumulating capital goods that are used to create wealth and grow the economy We cannot save as a country by borrowing from foreign creditors to purchase more cars and houses That s not saving All that serves is to dig the nation deeper into its debt hole and place us further at the mercy of creditor nations who may not have the best interest of America first in mind And all this borrowing spending is taking its toll on our currency If the Fed and Treasury allow the dollar to continue its secular swoon we may face a currency crisis especially if the decline becomes unruly The Chinese could be forced to sell their Treasuries causing a global panic to flee the dollar sending already vastly overpriced bond prices plummeting Now I understand this would hurt our exporting creditors as well as the domestic economy But is it reasonable to believe the Chinese will continue to

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=313 (2016-02-13)
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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    aktsiahinna tõusuga ei teki maailma mitte ühtegi senti lisarikkust Aktsiahinna üleöine kahekordistumine võib küll suurendada ettevõtte väärtust kahekordseks kuid vaadates suuremat pilti globaalsemalt ei teki juurde mitte ainsat grammigi rikkust Ettevõte asub edasi samades hoonetes ja tal on ikka sama palju vara Aktsiahinna tõus on virtuaalne võit mis kaob sama kiirelt kui tekkis Küll aga kõik eelpool nimetatud protsessid jagavad maailmas rikkust ringi Kui muutuvad valuutade omavahelised kurisid siis need inimesed kes omavad tugevnevat valuutat saavad oma raha eest rohkem osta ning need kelle valuuta langeb kaotavad täpselt sama palju kui teised võidavad Ühegi kursimuutuse korral lisarikkust maailma ei teki Rikkus tekkib maailma nii piinlik kui seda ka siin kirja panna ei ole ainult tööga Rikkus tekib midagi uut luues ehitades kaevandades aga mitte ümber jagades Üks suuremaid rikkuse ümberjagajaid on raha devalveerimine Devalveerimise korral muutuvad kõik devalveerimise läbielanud inimesed vaesemaks Pole ühtegi näidet maailmast kus devalveerimine oleks toonud inimeste nägudele naeratuse mitte pisaraid Meenutatagu siin Argentiinat Soomet Mehhikot või Zimbabwet Ilma ühegi erandita on kaotajad selle riigi kodanikud võitjad aga kõik ülejäänud maailm Kuid kuna riigi esmane ülesanne on oma kodanike heaolu tõstmine siis peaks iga riik püüdma rahakursi langemist vältida Ja samamoodi nagu riik püüab oma elanikke devalveerimise eest kaitsta lähtuvad teised riigid oma huvidest ja üritavad sundida teisi riike oma raha devalveerima Siit ka välismaa nn ekspertide arvmused et Eesti Läti raha tuleb devalveerida ja see elavdab majandust Elavadab küll see võimaldab riigis olevat rikkust teiste riikide kodanikel I phone et mitte öelda võileiva raha eest üles osta Loomulikult on eriti lähiümbruse riigid huvitatud et naabrid oma raha devalveeriks see võimaldaks nende riikide kodanikel sealt enda jaoks rikkusi poolmuidu ostmas käia Ja need ostu müügi tehingud ei ole mitte vastastikkuse võrdväärse vahetuse põhimõttel Aga on olemas ka vastupidine protsess raha revalveerimine Läbi ajaloo on kõik riiigid kes

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=312 (2016-02-13)
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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    puhul Avaleht Uudised Uudised IMF müüb ligi 500 tonni kulda 19 09 2009 Äripäev IMFi juhatus kiitis heaks plaani müüa 403 tonni kulda väärtuses 13 miljardit dollarit kirjutas Bloomberg IMF teatas et on valmis müüma kulla keskpankadele Müügid plaanitakse läbi viia vabal turul etappide kaupa Need müügid viiakse läbi vastutustundlikul ja läbipaistval moel millega välditakse kullaturu häirimist ütles IMFi juht Dominique Strauss Kahn Plaanitav müügikogus oleks kaheksandik IMFi kullavarudest ning

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=310 (2016-02-13)
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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    tagasi tõmmata sest Ghana suurima kullakaevandusettevõtte Gold Fields töötajad alustasid tööaeglustusstreigiga millest võib välja kasvada palju ulatuslikum streik kirjutab Bloomberg Nad töötavad aga töö efektiivsus on dramaatiliselt vähenenud teatas Ghana Kaevandustööliste Ühingu sekretär Prints William Ankrah uudisteagentuurile Tarkwa kaevandus tootis eelmisel aastal 646 000 untsi kulda ning Gold Fields plaanib selle aasta mahuks 700 000 untsi Täna toimub kohtumine ettevõtte juhtide ja tööliste ühingu vahel millest koorub välja järgmine samm

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=308 (2016-02-13)
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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    puhul Avaleht Uudised Uudised Faber USA kõrge defitsiit toob kaasa inflatsiooni 10 09 2009 Äripäev Investor Dr Marc Faber ütles et USA valitsuse kulutused ja madalad intressid hoiavad USA defitsiidi väga kõrgena ja viib inflatsioonini vahendab Bloomberg Föderaalreserv jätkab tõenäoliselt raha trükkimist eesmärgiga hoogustada USA majandust ning see ühes madalate intressidega viib dollari nõrkuseni ütles Faber USA president Barack Obama on ajanud riigi turustatavate võlakirjade mahu ennenägematu 6 94 triljoni dollarini Raha trükkimine saab olema seninägematu kuna defitsiit vajab finantseerimist ütles Faber Mida nõrgem on majandus seda enam tõuseb aktsiaturg kuna trükitud raha liigub spekulatiivsetesse varadesse Faber kes soovitas mullu oktoobris osta USA aktsiaid enne kui enam kui 70 aasta suurim aktsiaralli algas Ta lisas et investorid peaksid ostma aktsiaid võlakirjade või raha hoidmise asemel Kui dollar on nõrk siis on väga suur šanss et aktsiad tõusevad märkimisväärselt ütles Faber Nõrgem dollar on hea varade hindadele Faber soovitab investoritel osta väärismetalle ja teisi tooraineid USA dollari kukkumise vastu Dollar jätkab kukkumist toorainete vastu ütles Tais resideeruv investor Ma ei näe põhjust miks keegi peaks hoidma dollareid ja mitte omama kulda Üha enam inimesi hakkab jõudma arusaamisele et et nad peavad omama mingeid tooraineid kaevanduskompaniide aktsiaid ja füüsiliselt väärismetalle Ta lisas

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=307 (2016-02-13)
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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    Avaleht Uudised Uudised Kullaunts maksab taas üle 1000 dollari 08 09 2009 Äripäev Esimest korda pärast pooleaastast vaheaega kerkis kulla hind üle tuhande dollari taseme sest dollari nõrgenemine ning ebakindlus maailma majanduse taastumise suhtes suurendab nõudlust väärismetalli järele Varem on kulla hind kerkinud üle tuhande dollari taseme vaid viiel korral kulla futuurid üheksal täna veebruaris ning kolmel korral 2008 aasta märtsis mil see kerkis kõigi aegade kõrgeimale tasemele 1030 80

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=306 (2016-02-13)
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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    deficit spending By 31 4 years later right on the Pi frequency we come to the end of that trend with the peak in US interest rates in 1981 Because the United States became the modern day Rome as the center of global capital concentration its alignment to to the Economic Ccnfidence Model became correlated during the 20th Century However what we are now going to see is what happens when a individual economy starts to blend with the Economic Confidence Model that is the global frequency This is what I refer to as the Correlation of Cyclical Convergence We are now ready to explore how the Sixth Dimension really begins to operate Each and every market as well as an economy retains its own unique frequencies that are inter dependent upon the Comparative Advantage of each and every market and national economy in terms of the theory of David Ricardo 1772 1823 Ricardo saw that certain nations had a comparative advantage For example England was the perfect environment to raise sheep That had led them to become the primary supplier of wool The Flemish were the weavers and thus they purchased the raw wool from England and manufactured various garments during the 12th and 13th Centuries They lacked the land to raise the sheep but had the skilled labor Likewise Saudi Arabia could grow lettuce by massive irrigation probably at a cost of 100 per head It should not waste its national wealth on such a project that can be avoided by buying it from Europe at about 50C Yet oil is a natural resource so its economy will line up with the commodity Europe on the continent lacks oil and will correlate in a reciprocal relation ship What happens when capital concentrates among nations it then transforms that single economy compelling it to conform closer to the Economic Confidence Model Thus what we end up with is a blending of influences just as in wave theory two waves out of phase will cancel each other out When the phase is aligned we get the giant waves for they will then combine increasing the amplitude Now you can perhaps understand the necessity of computers Just as what appeared once to be chaos was suddenly exposed to have been just sheer order in a complex structure It took computers to see the order that the human mind had never been able to see no less touch When we look at the blending of the main Economic Confidence Model with that of the United States Economy we can see a very neat and crisp correlation between 1899 and 1913 that are two critical dates in US events The composite becomes a blending of the 8 6 year frequency Pi 3 141592654 and the 72 year volatility frequency based upon the unit of 6 The second series of 1913 brings us to 1964 This was the start of the collapse of the dollar that began a trend toward the decline and fall of the gold standard It was 1964 that was the last of the silver coinage and the end of the silver certificates Federal Reserve Notes backed by silver This turning point of 1964 for the US dollar began an oscillating decline that was truly impressive It was as if America had its throat slit and the slow death that was unfolding was almost in slow motion If we again add 31 4 years to 1964 we arrive at 1995 This was the major low for the dollar against the Japanese yen This dollar decline marked the end of the capital concentration for Japan when the yen rose on the cash to about 79 to the dollar 1 2625 Futures on April 19th 1995 Adding Pi 3 14 years we then see a trend from 1995 3 to 1998 with the ideal target of June 10th 1998 1998 44 It was nearly a double bottom for the dollar in June and August that year with the dollar rising to about 147 cash our Annual Bullish Reversal or 6807 futures on August 11th 1998 If we now take the 1950 high add the 31 4 we come to 1981 with the peak in interest rates post Depression followed by the major high in 1985 14 where we find the major dollar high and the formation of the G 5 designed specifically to manipulate the currencies for in the mind of government that power would translate into the manipulation of trade deficits and the ability to effect employment It was a total and complete failure creating the 1987 Crash by lowering the dollar 40 causing massive foreign liquidation of US assets What is happening here is that we have the 51 6 year Economic Confidence Model that is still dominant that is being influenced by Pi in intervals of 31 4 years and overlaid with the 72 year volatility model The 1899 target merges with Pi to come close to the BCM targets of 1929 75 and 1934 05 We see 1930 and 1933 where the spike drop in the dollar begind This goes into 1937 high The 1913 target leads us to 1944 Bretton Woods but both line up with the ECM for 1989 2002 You may wonder what is honestly so significant about the 1950 51 period Above you will see a chart of the Dow Jones Industrials on an annual basis between 1901 and 1981 When we look at the 1951 period most see nothing significant However keep in mind we are dealing with cycles that are in fact turning points that are best described not as highs or law but changes in trend When we look at the above chart what we see is a steady rally from the first low post Great Depression on April 28th 1942 Yes there is a perfect Pi cycle of 31 4 yrs into the the major high on January 11th 1973 But this is merely the surface Focus in now on 1951 The rally in 1950 exceeded the 1937 high and closed above it for the first time on an annual basis 1951 pressed higher and that continued into 1952 with a singleton retest of support in 1953 This was the turning point that marked the true breakout 1951 was the abandonment of the Congressional mandate that the Fed had to support US government debt at par This is when the free markets were truly restored The bullshit that stocks rise with lower interest rates was a relationship dreamed up by some lunatic economist Interest rates began to rise from 1951 and did not reach their peak until 1981 causing a near 86 loss in the value of the 1946 bonds Once we see the retest of support in 1953 there was a springboard straight up from there on The Dow reached a peak in 1961 and pulled back into a minor correction for 1962 Tieing the 1962 low to the 1929 high established the breakout line of support upon which the major 1974 low was created As the dollar pressure rose from 1962 we see a Pi cycle into early 1966 as the market peaked on February 9th 1966 The 1966 collapse was a Mutual Fund Crash The mutual funds were then listed on the exchange and were being sold by insurance brokers everywhere The prices became reflective of speculation far above book value The 1966 collapse was so significant the reform thereafter was the de listing of mutual funds Fidelity Trend one of the best performing funds at the time fell from about 50 to about 5 7 It was a 1929 Crash in mutual funds The decline thereafter formed the low in 1970 with another Pi cycle into the major high on January 11th 1973 exceeding the 1 000 level on the Dow Throughout this period interest rates are overall rising But it is the decline in the dollar that began from 1951 becomes self evident with the removal of silver in 1964 1968 begins the two tier gold market Private Public in London and in 1971 the floating exchange rate system began Within this Sixth Dimension everything beats to the drums of its own nature and time relative to everything else in all other nations There is a dual nature to this very interesting dimension and that is the interplay between the cyclical forces unique to each market and economy and the major effect of the Economic Confidence Model that creates a individual cyclical pattern projection Just as we have recently seen a 17 2 month decline in both interest rates flight to the so called quality of gov t paper and the US share market creating a low in March just 8 6 days from the ideal target this external and major influence of the 8 615384615 frequency appears often from key events and eventually causes the correlation as well as the vital global contagions Look at the above chart and what we see is 17 2 months from the 1968 high into the 1970 low We then see a 31 4 Pi cycle rise into the 1973 high with a middle frequency of 23 months into the December 1974 low We then move back to a normal 21 month rally into the 1976 high We can see the influence between the major 8 6 frequency and its own unique cycles The 8 6 year frequency will revolve and eventually come in perfect alignment with the Economic Confidence Model and that signaled the concentration of global capital When we look at the chart below covering the Dow on a plain monthly basis between 1977 and the end of 1985 we can study when the external influence of the 8 615 frequency starts to subside The decline from the 1976 high was again 17 2 months into 1978 following the 8 6 frequency 8 6 x 2 17 2 Here we see a brief 6 month rally into the end of 1978 with a sideways to lower trend moving into 1980 that again measured 17 2 months Here is where the external influence dies and the domestic cyclical forces begin to once more dominate altering the core pattern frequency We then have a 13 month rally into 1981 with a 16 month decline into 1982 that just happens to be a very major turning point that set the stage for the resumption of a real bull market that up to now had not reappeared The rise in the Dow between 1932 and 1982 was primarily a hedge against government The Dow began to rise fearing the inflation policy of FDR who revalued the dollar in 1934 from 20 1 ounce of gold to 35 This net 57 decline in the value of the dollar is the only thing that created the Depression low in 1932 The breakout in 1951 with the change in the Fed sparked the rise relative to the It may sound strange to say that the rise in the US Share market from 1 932 into the early 1982 period was not a real bull market The empirical price of the Dow Jones Industrials rallied from 40 56 on July 8th 1932 into the 1 000 zone However this is where the conflict between Public and the Private Confidence comes into play If the government were to devalue the dollar tomorrow by 50 and you then sold your house for 80 more that what you just paid for it 2 weeks before the devaluation did you really make money The answer is NO This is the same situation The bonds fell by 86 in value from the 1951 period to 1981 What we are looking at is the reciprocal where stocks represent the clear opposite of confidence in government After the 1929 crash we entered into a Public Wave that peaked in 1981 35 This is why the stocks rallied overall more so as a hedge against the decline in the dollar There were periods of capital concentration in stocks creating bull markets But we cannot look at just the index to see the complexity When we correlate this to numerous aspects within the economy we begin to see that something else is going on as well This is the eternal battle of Public v Private that has been in fact noticed by many since even the days of Plato This is a significant factor for it defines how all things act depending upon where the Confidence resides at that moment in time A Private Wave government turns against it own people and they are marked by sheer nasty police state mentality that dominates everything We can see that when people trust government stocks lagged in value and bonds lead We can see that the left chart illustrates the book value of the companies as a of the high for that year We can see the major low is actually 1976 When we look at the earnings as a of the high of the Dow the low is 1982 The Dow Jones Industrials did outpace the decline in the dollar from 1946 as reflected in the value of bonds with the 86 drop by the peak in the Economic Confidence Model for the Public Wave 1981 35 Because the US was the center of global capital concentration it began aligned with the model in the 20th Cent This rise in the Dow from 1932 40 56 up to 1 000 an 86 drop would have been to 140 So the Dow did outperform bonds in real tangible protection of capital Gold was 20 in 1932 and reached 875 in 1980 that was a 4375 advance compared to the Dow s 2500 advance Nevertheless both on a long term basis outperformed bonds and rose even with the overall advance in interest rates throughout this period Still the Dow did lag behind during this Public Wave but has since made up for lost time Still at 14 000 the advance for the Dow since 1932 stands at 35000 The same advance for gold would now be 7 000 The value of anything is truly the reciprocal of the value of the dollar Thrasymachus T he different forms of government make laws democratical aristocratical tyrannical with a view to their several interests and these laws which are made by them for their own interests are the justice which they deliver to their subjects and him who transgresses them they punish as a breaker of the law and unjust And that is what I mean when I say that in all states there is the same principle of justice which is the interest of the government and as the government must be supposed to have power the only reasonable conclusion is that everywhere there is one principle of justice which is the interest of the stronger Plato s Republic Anchor Books 1973 ed p22 I am certainly not the first to notice that there is a continual battle between the self interests of government and those of the people Above is a quote Plato gives in a debate between Socrates and Thrasymachus Socrates wrongly believed that the invention of a democracy would always gravitate toward true justice because it was controlled by the people Thrasymachus argued it mattered not the form of government for they always seek only their own self interest at the cruel expense of the people Unfortunately Socrates paid the price of his belief in democracy with his life The form of government matters not at all for they will always circumvent whatever restraints exist to win at all costs It is often overlooked but even Adolf Hitler did not win by the majority vote of the people Once government assumes power it will move to suppress the rights of the people to just further its own economic ends This is why perhaps cycles also exist in politics for we do not have a chance of avoiding the very turmoil of the future for it will require as Hoover pointed out in 1920 an Economic Statesman There is no one on the horizon to save us Government will never admit it is part of the problem for they rely on the pretense of being the solution We are our own worst enemy and there is no hope of avoiding the debt implosion What we must be concerned about is Hoover was correct There is no court of appeals between the nations to enforce economic sanity There is only a resort to force of arms There were a few truly great men who understood that it was the Rule of Law that secured all wealth and truly restrained government against committing suicide as it just always does There was Lord Camden who was removed from the bench by the King There was Lord Coke who was also removed Then there were the the immortal words of Lord Mansfield who said Let justice be done though the havens fall Rex v Wikes 4 Burrow s Reports 2527 2562 1768 But it is unfortunate fosuch moments in time are far such moments in time are far too brief The inherent corruption of the state consumes everything and that is why what we are looking at on the horizon is a meltdown of the Public Confidence that will topple the greatest plans of men and tyrants By 1932 the noble principles of justice gave way to Marxism in the United States and this became reflected in the legal decisions being handed down In an important book of the time it was noted the decline in the Rule of Law It is not the technical legal conception that leads to the decisions pronounced by the judge but it is the decision which the judge intends to pronounce which lead him to the finding of the technical reasons Therefor the decisions themselves being the re sult of the judge s views on the social and economic questions involved in the solution of

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=305 (2016-02-13)
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  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    rivals President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in a bid to end a political crisis introduced multiple foreign currencies to stop sky rocketing inflation and revive the economy But Gono a Mugabe ally whose reappointment last year has been opposed by Tsvangirai says the shortage of foreign currencies in the country was hurting economic recovery efforts In an article he wrote in the state controlled Herald newspaper Gono urged the re introduction of the Zimbabwe dollar to ease the liquidity crunch but said this was not a call for a blind return to the money printing press Rather what I am calling for is the guarded reintroduction of the Zimbabwe dollar where such a new currency will be fully backed by credible tangible and locally available assets such as gold diamonds or platinum among several other possibilities Gono said Zimbabwe s inflation has tumbled from an official annual rate of 231 million in July 2008 which independent analysts say was understated to a monthly rate of 1 in July 2009 following the decision to abandon the local currency But the unity government which says it needs at least 8 3 billion for reconstruction has so far failed to

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=303 (2016-02-13)
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