archive-ee.com » EE » T » TAVID.EE

Total: 1088

Choose link from "Titles, links and description words view":

Or switch to "Titles and links view".
  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    hands on coins and small bars particularly silver In other words there is presently a huge disconnect between the paper market and the physical market The demand for physical metal is soaring Normally the market is supplied by new material being fabricated and existing products being sold back into the market but no old products are being sold In contrast to the paper market where over leveraged positions have caused distressed and forced selling existing fabricated product is in strong hands and unlikely to be dislodged except at much higher prices I suspect that this disconnect between the paper market and the physical market means that gold will climb back as rapidly as it fell creating a V bottom Consequently the precious metals are likely to snap back as rapidly as they dropped After all inflation is a growing problem everywhere the US federal deficit is ballooning the global banking system is imploding from losses inflation adjusted interest rates in every major currency remain negative and the euro is reeling because of massive current account gaps in Spain Portugal and Greece All of these factors are very gold bullish To give you a true picture of just how bad inflation has become here is what John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics reports in his latest newsletter The SGS Alternate Consumer Inflation Measure which reverses gimmicked changes to official CPI reporting methodologies back to 1980 rose to a 28 year high of roughly 13 4 in July up from 12 6 in June It s no wonder that the demand for precious metal coins and small bars is so strong Incidentally though GoldMoney like many other companies had a record week GoldMoney has not experienced any shortages of metal because we transact only in large bars namely those that meet the standards of the London Bullion Market Association LBMA These bars come into the market daily from refiners and existing stocks such as those held by central banks But the shortage of fabricated product has caused me to ponder whether a shortage of LBMA sized bars might also develop at these low prices In other words could gold go into backwardation meaning the spot month i e physical metal trades at a premium to future months i e paper promises to pay metal in the future A backwardation would be unthinkable in normal times but these are not normal times The extraordinary demand for coins and small bars can be viewed as an early sign that the market is moving into backwardation In other words the backwardation is in effect being reflected by higher premiums above spot for physical metal rather than spot itself rising and going into backwardation Central banks do not transact in small bars and their coin transactions are inconsequential compared to the size of the market So the market for fabricated product is relatively free from government influence But central banks of course exert a dominant influence on the market for LBMA sized bars by using their

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=146 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive


  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    Hollandi Wilhelmina kuldmünt Kulla kaal 6 056 g Mündi kaal 6 7290 g Kulla proov 900 Diameeter 22 mm Nimiväärtus 10 kuldnat Kuninganna Wilhelmina pika võimuperioodi jooksul anti välja neli erinevat Wilhelmina kuldmünti Tavid pakub hetkel neist viimast kus on kujutatud vanas eas Wilhelminat Esikülg Kuninganna Wilhelmina kujutist ümbritseb tekst KONINGIN WILHELMINA GOD ZIJ MET ONS Kuninganna Wilhelmina Jumal on meiega Tagakülg Vapp millel on Hollandi krooni all tagajalgadel seisev lõvi Riigi nimi KONINGRIJK DER NEDERLANDEN Hollandi Kuningriik Hollandi keeles ja väljalaskeaasta Aastaarvust vasakul on merihobu ja paremal heeroldikepp Loe mündi kohta lähemalt SIIT Müügile saabusid haruldased Bütsantsiaja Solidus kuldmündid Diameeter erinevad 19 mm Mündi kaal erinevad kaalud alates 4 g Kulla proov 977 Solidus oli algselt roomlaste poolt välja antud kuldmünt See lasti esimest korda välja Constantine I poolt aastal 312 ja asendas Rooma Impeeriumi kuldmünti aureus Solidus oli üldiselt kaalult ja proovilt muutumatu kuni 10 sajandini Kui münt saabus ringlusest tagasi varakambrisse siis sulatati see üles ja vermiti uus münt Kuna münt ei olnud käibel nii kaua et hakkaks kuluma säilitati ringluses olevate Solidus müntide ühtlane kaal Kuigi kaupmeestel oli keelatud Solidus müntide kasutamine väljaspool Bütsantsi Impeeriumi kaubeldi nendega siiski ka väljaspool impeeriumi piire ja eriti nõutud raha

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=143 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    metal has fallen through its 50 week moving average the key support line that has held solid through the seven year bull market This week is not over yet of course If gold recovers enough in coming days it could still close above the line Courtesy of my old colleague Peter Brimelow whose columns on gold are a must read note that Australia s Privateer point and figure chart has also broken its upward line for the first time since 2002 This is serious technical damage So have we reached the moment when gold bugs must start questioning their deepest assumptions Have they bought too deeply into the dollar collapse M3 monetary bubble tale ignoring all the other moving parts in the complex global system Nobody wants to be left holding the bag all the way down to the bottom of the slide long after the hedge funds have sold out Well my own view is that gold bugs should start looking very closely at something else the implosion of Europe Japan is in recession too Germany s economy shrank by 1pc in Q2 Italy shrank by 0 3pc Spain is sliding into a crisis that looks all too like the early stages of Argentina s debacle in 2001 The head of the Spanish banking federation today pleaded with the European Central Bank for rescue measures to end the credit crisis The slow burn damage of the over valued euro is becoming apparent in every corner of the eurozone The ECB misjudged the severity of the downturn as executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi admitted today in the Italian press By raising interest rates into the teeth of the storm last month Frankfurt has made it that much more likely that parts of Europe s credit system will seize up as defaults snowball next year As readers know I do not believe the eurozone is a fully workable currency union over the long run There was a momentary convergence when the currencies were fixed in perpetuity mostly in 1995 They have diverged ever since The rift between North and South was not enough to fracture the system in the first post EMU downturn the dotcom bust We have moved a long way since then The Club Med bloc is now massively dependent on capital inflows from North Europe to plug their current account gaps Spain 10pc Portugal 10pc Greece 14pc UBS warned that these flows are no longer forthcoming The central banks of Asia the Mid East and Russia have been parking a chunk of their 6 trillion reserves in European bonds on the assumption that the euro can serve as a twin pillar of the global monetary system alongside the dollar But the euro is nothing like the dollar It has no European government tax or social security system to back it up Each member country is sovereign each fiercely proud answering to its own ancient rythms It lacks the mechanism of fiscal transfers to switch money to depressed

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=141 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    rocket came from Asia s savings glut China Taiwan Vietnam and other exporters have built up huge surpluses by holding down their currencies through dollar pegs or dirty floats Part 1 Newcastle is still reeling from Northern Rock Part 2 US property dream is now a nightmare Together with Russia and the Mid East petro powers they have accumulated a war chest of some 6 trillion in reserves This must be recycled into foreign assets Most went into US and European bonds pushing down the cost of long term capital for the entire global system On top of this roughly 250bn a year fled zero interest rates in Japan to chase better returns abroad through the carry trade Japan s emergency stimulus leaked everywhere The ensuing bond bubble depressed yields for pension funds and insurers obliged to buy AAA assets leaving them struggling to match their long term liabilities They were easy prey when the sharks came along with sub prime debt sliced and diced into irresistible blocks of AAA securities promising high yields Rules made matters worse Professor Peter Spencer from York University said the Basle code on capital adequacy ratios caused a perverse side effect By making banks raise capital against their balance sheets it gave them a strong incentive to move off balance sheets he said The Fed could have done a great deal to offset the tsunami of Asian money by squeezing liquidity at home It chose not to do so Mr Greenspan and his protégé Ben Bernanke saw no need to act because inflation was tamed Cheap Asian goods flooded the world keeping a lid on inflation in the West It lulled the central banking fraternity into a false sense of security As they slept the excess money found its way into asset booms This was the Great Error Policymakers interpreted the quiescence in inflation to mean that there was no good reason to raise rates when growth accelerated and no impediment to lowering them when growth faltered said the BIS last month Nobel laureate Joe Stiglitz said the new fad of inflation targeting had led policymakers astray The dogma fails to distinguish between different causes of inflation It should be ditched My sympathies go to the unfortunate citizens of those countries that implement inflation targeting he said Britain is one of them So are Australia New Zealand Sweden and Iceland All have property bubbles Mr Greenspan argued that it was not for central banks to steer asset prices In reality he slashed rates to rescue banks during the Russian default LTCM crisis in 1998 He slashed them even further after the dotcom bust Yet he always let speculative booms run their course This was the Greenspan Put Markets believed they could count on welfare for Wall Street in the end The culture of moral hazard degenerated by degrees culminating in a near total disregard for risk by 2007 Part 3 Risky debt notes could be a losing game Part 4 After the binge the

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=142 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    of people are involved in deliberately suppressing the gold price then sooner or later the price will rise like a beach ball that has been pushed under water The central banks of the world tried the suppressing game in the 1960 s and they failed The reason for such suppression is the knowledge that gold is an obvious barometer for price inflation It is much easier to inflate the money supply with a constant gold price than it is with a rising gold price The amount of gold in existence is finite It cannot be increased any faster than by 1 6 per annum the rate at which mines are producing gold Whereas the amount of money in circulation is currently expanding at double digit levels on a worldwide basis The US M3 money supply back in 1980 was 1 8 trillion dollars Today according to economist John Williams www shadowstats org the US M3 money supply has ballooned to almost 15 trillion dollars Some of that extra money has the potential to move into gold The stage is set for a remarkable rise in the price of gold Let s look at some charts to see if it is safe to add to our gold position Featured is the daily gold chart Notice the seasonal low in June right on schedule Next the dip below the 200DMA earlier this week very similar to a dip in August of 2007 green arrows That dip was the trigger for a move that took gold from 650 to 850 in 3 months A similar move now will take the price of gold to 1 075 00 surpassing the 1 030 00 high point set in March of this year According to market expert Joseph Granville In a bull market every time price moves near or below the 200DMA it is an opportunity to buy Notice how the 50DMA is in positive alignment to the 200DMA while both of these averages are rising That is the sign of a bull market in action Notice the RSI at the top of the chart has almost reached the 30 level where it usually bottoms in preparation for the next rise A close above the blue arrow turns gold bullish again Next a look at the 7 8 week gold cycle Featured is the weekly bar chart for gold The blue arrows point to the bottom of the 7 8 week gold cycle The fact that the current cycle touched the 50 week moving average during week 8 provides confidence that the cycle may have bottomed Notice the RSI at the top of the chart is at the 50 support level Next a long range look at gold and silver stocks Featured is the bar chart for the XAU gold and silver stocks index Price carved out a bullish multi year cup with handle formation with the breakout occurring late 2007 Price moved up to 200 where a correction set in This correction took on the

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=138 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    Sikupilli Prisma Tartu mnt 87 Tallinn Järve Selver Pärnu mnt 238 Tallinn Kristiine Keskus Endla 45 Tallinn Tartu kontor Rüütli 2 Tartu L 02 08 SULETUD 09 00 17 00 09 00 17 00 10 00 17 00 10 00 21 00 10 00 17 00 P 03 08 SULETUD 10 00 21 00 10 00 21 00 10 00 21 00 10 00 21 00 10 00 17 00

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=135 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    aktsiaturg oluliselt kõrgemal tasemel majandusteaduse doktor Irving Fisher 17 oktoobril 1929 See majanduskriis äritegevust oluliselt ei mõjuta Chicago Continental Illinois Banki president Arthur Reynolds 24 oktoobril 1929 Eilne börsilangus ei kordu Mina teist samasugust tagasiminekut ei karda Equitable Trust Company esimees Arthur W Loasby tsiteeritud NYT s reedel 25 oktoobril 1929 Meie meelest on Wall Streetiga põhimõtteliselt kõik korras ja inimestele kel on võimalik heade aktsiate eest kohe maksta on need nende hindade eest odavad Goodbody ettevõtte börsiülevaade tsiteeritud New York Times is reedel 25 oktoobril 1929 6 Praegu on hea aeg aktsiate ostmiseks Praegu on hea aeg tuletamaks meelde kadunud J P Morgani sõnu et igaüks kes suhtub Ameerikasse karulikult läheb pankrotti Tõenäoliselt leiab lähipäevil aset pigem karude kui pullide paanika Nii madalaid hindu mis tulenevad sellest hüsteerilisest müümisest ei saavutata enam paljude aastate jooksul turuanalüütik R W McNeel tsiteeritud New York Herald Tribune is 30 oktoobril 1929 Kvaliteetsete soliidsete ettevõtete väärtpaberite ostmist ei kahetse keegi E A Pearce börsiülevaade tsiteeritud New York Herald Tribune is 30 oktoobril 1929 Mõned üsna intelligentsed inimesed ostavad praegu aktsiaid Kui meil just ei tule paanikat millesse keegi tõsiselt ei usu siis on aktsiad põhja jõudnud finantsanalüütik R W McNeal oktoobris 1929 7 Langus on väärpaberi mitte materiaalsete kaupade ja teenuste turul Ärilise definitsiooni kohaselt on Ameerikal praegu kaheksas õitsenguaasta Eelmised suured õitsenguajad Ameerikas on olnud keskmiselt üksteist aastat pikad Sellest lähtuvalt on meil enne pöörisesse sattumist aega veel kolm aastat Ameerika majandusteadlane ja kirjanik Stuart Chase NY Herald Tribune 1 november 1929 Nüüd on hüsteeria Wall Streetilt kadunud The Times of London 2 november 1929 Wall Streeti kriis ei tähenda et tulemas on üldine tõsine majandusdepressioon Kuus aastat on Ameerika äri juhtinud olulise osa oma tähelepanust energiast ja vahenditest spekulatiivsele mängule Nüüd on see ebaoluline võõras ja ohtlik seiklus möödas Äri on nüüd tagasi tulnud tagasi oma ülesannete juurde ilma vigastusteta tervena majanduslikult tugevamana kui iial enne Business Week 2 november 1929 vaatamata aktsiahindade suurele langusele loodame et tegu on kõigest vahepealse faasiga ja mitte majandusdepressiooni eelkäijaga mis toob kaasa edasisi kaotusi Harvard Economic Society HES 2 november 1929 8 tõsine depressioon näib ebatõenäoline me eeldame majandusolukorra paranemist järgmisel kevadel ja edasisi arenguid sügisel HES 10 november 1929 Aktsiaturu langus ei kesta enam kaua kõige rohkem paar järgmist päeva Yale i ülikooli majandusprofessor Irving Fisher 14 november 1929 Enamikku selle riigi linnu Wall Streeti paanika ei mõjuta Ajaleheketi Block esimees Paul Block juhtkiri 15 november 1929 Majandustorm läks kindlapeale mööda Bernard Baruch kaabelgrammis Winston Churchillile 15 novembril 1929 9 Ma ei näe praeguses situatsioonis midagi kurjakuulutavat või pessimismi õigustavat Olen täiesti kindel et kevadel toimub tegevuse elavnemine ja tuleva aasta jooksul teeb riik pidevalt edusamme USA rahandusminister Andrew W Mellon 31 detsembril 1929 Olen kindel et nende meetmete kaudu oleme taastanud enesekindluse Herbert Hoover detsembris 1929 1930 saab olema suurepärane tööhõiveaasta USA Tööministeerium uue aasta prognoos detsembris 1929 10 Lähitulevikuks on vähemalt väljavaated aktsiad head majandusteaduse doktor Irving Fisher 1930nda aasta alguses 11 on näitajaid mille kohaselt tagasilanguse raskeim faas on möödas

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=134 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Valuutavahetus, Investeerimiskuld - Tavid Kuld & Valuuta
    driving habits The government tries to bring inflation under control but instead the currency of your nation takes a scary nosedive Investors abruptly push up interest rates The stock market is in a downward spiral dropping literally every day Foreign investors are dumping your country and loans all around you are defaulting Unemployment is rising Your household wealth is plummeting with damage from both the real estate and the stock markets and there s no end in sight to inflation Would you concur this is the kind of environment that leads directly to a rush into precious metals I ve got news for you it s already happening The country of Vietnam is experiencing every one of those maladies inflation is an incredible 27 interest rates are over 8 they rose 100 basis points in one swoop the stock market was down every day in May and unemployment has more than doubled from 2 in 07 to 5 1 in 08 And here s the interesting part how did the Vietnamese public react to all this Did they dollar cost average down on equities How about real estate that s always a long term winner right What about bonds Maybe inflation protected securities Or did they just sit on cash How about none of the above The economic and monetary problems in their country have sent the Vietnamese fleeing to gold And not gold stocks gold bullion Furthermore they re hoarding and hiding it from their government Hard figures on the size of the local gold trade aren t available but current estimates are that the public owns 16 million ounces including 1 3 million ounces imported in the first quarter of 2008 Of this only about 10 has been deposited into banks which actually pay 2 5 interest on gold The remaining 90 presumably is under mattresses or hanging around the owner s neck And the trend to gold is spilling into other financial areas After a long period of quoting land prices in Vietnamese dong landlords are now setting prices in gold in order to avoid the dong s devaluation Nguyen Trung Vu general director of the Ky Moi Real Estate Co said that while it is complicated to quote prices and make transactions in gold I think that making transactions with payment in gold will become a trend My question to you is what happens when Americans flee their currency as the Vietnamese have What happens when inflation isn t just an annoyance but becomes lifestyle altering as in Vietnam What happens when the stock market continues to plunge and all traditional investments are losing investments as in Vietnam What happens when the dollar loses so much value that the average citizen scrambles for a safe harbor for their money Well the stage is set Account statements for the first half of the year are in the mail and they aren t pretty What alternatives are left To where will American investors send their dollars When it

    Original URL path: http://www.tavid.ee/?main=11&newsID=132 (2016-02-13)
    Open archived version from archive



  •